Abraham Lincoln once said, “The most reliable way to predict the future is to create it.” As storytellers, we do this all the time. We often encounter crossroads and have the potential to move forward in many directions. While exploring story possibilities may be overwhelming, some tools help us find clarity and choose the best path. The cone of plausibility is one of them.
What is the cone of plausibility?
This is a tool used to visualize and understand a spectrum of possible futures, ranging from highly probable to highly improbable. It represents the future possibilities ina cone-sheped diagram, where the narrow part signifies the present. As time progresses, the cone widens because more possibilities could happen. Some of the future range possibilities are:
Probable futures: These are scenearios that are most likely to occur based on current trends, data, and expert knowledge.
Plausible futures: These include less likely outcomes, but still conceivable scenarios.
Possible futures: Although they may be unexpected and unlikely, they could occur under certain conditions, such as changes in technology, politics, or other factors.
Preposterous futures: These are considered events that are impossible or highly unlikely, such as breakthroughs that challenge our understanding of science and the nature of reality.
As a cone extends from the present to the future, the diameter increases the further we go, and the range of options, including the plausible ones, expands. As storytellers, we may ask ourselves what the next step is or which part of the cone’s diameter we should explore – the safe center or the wildcards at the edges. The art of storytelling sometimes lies in those choices.
The safe center
Some storytellers stay in the center of the cone, guiding the story through likely and plausible futures. They prefer to shape the narrative with scenarios that are expected to happen, with no surprises and minimal disruptions. This type of storytelling is often used in children’s movies, like the classic Cinderella. She meets the prince, he looks for her, finds her, gets married, and they live happily ever after. Every step leads to the next, maintaining a dull and predictable flow.
The benefit here is obvious. The story is simple to follow, with no complicated plot twists, and you won’t miss anything during a quick bathroom break. However, with too many predicted choices, the audience might become disengaged and bored.
The wild outskirts
Shifting the storyline with the outer wild card options appears to be quite trendy today. Many hit TV shows from recent years are filled, some might say oversaturated, with unexpected plot twists.
For example, in Season 2 of the Netflix TV show The Squid Game, the main character who won the first game decides to come back and play again. To avoid revealing spoilers, it is safe to say that the plot progresses with less believable options, engaging viewers and keeping them constantly alert.
When we choose to progress the story with more surprising options, located closer to the circumference of the cone, the audience remains engaged. However, there is a fine line between less plausible and unrealistic. Additionally, this approach is not suitable for audiences who prefer simpler stories or less dramatic changes.
Implementation of the cone in my work
The game “The Thing from the Future” encourages players to imagine what the future might hold. It achieves this by combining random prompts on cards that challenge players to invent objects, ideas, or artifacts from different imagined futures. These artifacts are designed to provoke reflection, spark discussion, and stimulate creative thought about human needs, society, and technology.
With my great game partner, Mak, we drew cards and imagined future scenarios. Since the game is set in the distant future, the diameter of the cone of plausibility was larger, giving us more creative freedom in our visual storytelling. Here, the arc determines a fixed time point on the horizontal axis of the cone, and we focus on which area on the vertical axis would be our creative zone – the safe center or the wild outskirts.
In a disciplined future, we need to invent a hobby-themed candy. The most likely scenario, straight from the center of the cone, emphasizes the wrapping paper more than the candy itself. For example, a candy wrapped with various hobby-themed images (e.g., a soccer ball, baseball bat, piano, etc.). If I shift slightly from the center of the cone and let my mind wander a bit more, the candy itself would resemble the hobby. Imagine a candy shaped like a guitar or a violin.
However, I chose to go straight to the outskirts. I imagined a future so incredible that people could eat special candies to enhance skills related to their hobbies. These candies, made with specific chemicals, are designed to boost both physical and mental abilities in certain areas. Imagine a candy that would improve your tennis skills or language knowledge. In my work, I enjoy being creative and original, and thinking outside the box— or in this case, the center of the cone— is what I do best.
Conclusion
The cone of plausibility helps craft stories within familiar or uncertain edges, blending predictability with imagination. It’s vital in design, planning, and storytelling, especially when facing uncertainty and deciding what to create or say next. Like other storytelling tools, careful use is essential to the success of the final product.
